Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: West and Central Africa
- 23 states, populations over 500,000
- Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
- Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
- Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.
Note: West and Central Africa does not make up a demographically diverse contiguous collection of states. All are youthful (median age younger than 25.5 years). Cape Verde (Cabo Verde) is the only state among this set that is projected to emerge out of the age-structural transition’s youthful phase by 2025 (it is projected to enter the intermediate phase of the transition in 2018).
Whereas political researchers tend to wonder why there are not more liberal democracies in Equatorial Africa, a glance at this table should make one wonder how Ghana, Benin, and Senegal have maintained their FREE assessment for as long as they have with youthful age structures. Benin’s FREE assessment has been consistent since 1991. Ghana has maintained FREE since 2000. Senegal was first assessed as FREE in 2002, then dropped from this category between 2008 and 2011, and then rose again to FREE status.
