European Regional Forecast

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Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: Europe

  • 35 states, populations over 500,000
  • Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
  • Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
  • Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Note: The European Region is dominated by countries in the mature phase of the age-structural transition (median ages ranging from 35.5 to 45.4 years). Column 6 shows the year at which each state’s population is estimated or projected to reach FREE95 — a median age of 45.5 years (the beginning of the post-mature phase of the age-structural transition). By 2025, the region is projected to have 8 states in the post-mature phase.