Age-structural Forecasts (from the 8 Rules)

Political DemographyTracking Forecasts and Their Outcomes.  It’s one thing to make timed forecasts (difficult), it’s another to track them (boring), note the successes and failures (a bit more interesting), and modify the theory to learn from the outcomes (painful). The theory behind these forecasts are summed up in the New Security Beat essay, “The 8 Rules of Political Demography“.  Age-structural theory is covered in a longer article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics.

The following spreadsheet (image posted below, downloadable here as an Excel Spreadsheet) is an effort to account for both the successes and failures of age-structural forecasts.  Several forecasts have been discussed in lectures, but have not yet been published in either journals or in web essays.  The next web essays will put these in print.

 

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Demography Podcast: Everybody Counts

Everybody Counts (by Jennifer Sciubba) is a podcast about all the ways human population shapes our world. From mass urbanization to massive refugee flows, high fertility to record low birth rates, population trends have social, political, and economic consequences. The world’s population is changing in unprecedented ways, and this podcast helps listeners make sense of those changes. Listen (& subscribe) to Jennifer Sciubba’s (professor, Rhodes College) podcast at this site:  Everybody Counts

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