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Insights: The Political Demography of Iran
Site of the world’s most rapid completion of the fertility transition
Read the background story of Iran’s political demography from the online library of PoliticalDemography.org:
- Iran’s Demographic Future and Its Implications (Cincotta & Sadjadpour, Dec. 2017, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
- Uncomfortable Companions: Fertility and Ideology in Iran. (Cincotta, 2018, New Security Beat).
- Iran: The Clash of Ideology and Development. (Cincotta, 2012, Foreign Policy Research Institute).
- Iran’s Chinese Future (Cincotta, 2009, Foreign Policy)
Which Demographic “End of History”?
Demography’s theoretical end-state is a set of hard-to-escape conditions typified by low and often sub-replacement levels of fertility, large proportions of retirees, and an aging workforce—an endpoint that the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends reports refer to as post-maturity. The shift toward post-maturity is so unrelenting in parts of Europe and East Asia that some analysts imagine humanity plunging globally into post-maturity. However, this scenario, which I call “Post-mature World,” is looking much less likely than its non-endpoint alternative (see Figure 1), a chronically demographically “Polarized World.”
To visit the complete essay on the New Security Beat website, click HERE. Or, download the essay HERE.
Attachments
Review of “The Demographic Transition Theory of War” (Brooks et al., 2019, International Security)
This review, recently published on the
H- Diplo website (read it here), provides insights into the background, methods, and conclusions of a recent landmark paper by Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas, entitled “The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful.” published in International Security 43(3): 53-95.
To download a copy of the click here …
Attachments
Statistical Forecasting Using Median Age
Statistical predictions can be made from can be made from simple curves (see Figure below for Tunisia). This brief essay shows how drawing a line through a set of age structural functions (functions that describe the shift in a categorical probabilities over the age-structural transition) yields a set of probabilities for each category. To see how it’s done for child survival, per-capita income, and liberal democracy, and to see the predicted outcomes for Tunisia, Colombia, Bangladesh (this one is surprising!), Uzbekistan, Philippines, and Nigeria, click here or go to the “Individual State Forecasts” page in the Forecasts menu.
Presentation at World Affairs Council of Albuquerque, and at Sandia Natl Lab.
Aug. 13, 2019
Much thanks to the Albuquerque’s World Affairs Council for inviting me to speak and for the hospitality. Also, while I was in NM, I was asked to present a seminar to the Strategic Futures unit at Sandia National Laboratories. The presentation slides (in .pdf form) can be accessed here.