Age-structural Model of Late-Secondary School Enrollment

Late-secondary School Enrollment Model 

This age-structural model characterizes its variable using 5 categories based on the percent of late-secondary school enrollments (Fig. 1) as a proportion of the population in the appropriate age categories: low (<20.0 percent enrolled), lower-middle (20.0 to 39.9 percent), middle (40.0 to 59.9 percent), upper-middle (60.0 to 79.9), and high (>80.0). The age-structural analysis indicates that:

  • states with populations under 5.0 million are likely to attain all categories at younger median ages than more populous states,
  • states relying on natural resource wealth (>15% of GDP) are likely to attain all categories at younger median ages than non-resource reliant states; and
  • states in the low and lower-middle income categories that are involved in a high-intensity conflict (>1000 battle-related deaths per year) are likely to enter the middle and upper-middle conflict categories later than others.
  • that the point at which 50 percent of all countries are expected to be within the lower-middle enrollment category, or a higher category (upper-middle or high) is at a median age of 18.0 (±0.3) For the middle enrollment category, that point is 20.8 (±0.4) years. For the upper-middle income category, that point is at 24.6 (±0.6) years, and for the high category, at 31.4 (±0.3) years.

Fig. 1. The suite of curves representing the probability of being assessed in one of this study’s five late-secondary enrollment categories: low late-secondary school enrollment, ≤20.0 percent; lower-middle late-secondary enrollment or higher categories (LM+), >20.0 percent; middle enrollment or higher (M+), >40.0 percent; upper-middle or higher (UM+), >60.0 percent; and high (H), >80.0 percent. Iran is shown at a median age of 29.5 in 2015, and in the upper-middle child survival category, where the country reported a late-secondary school enrollment of 82.9 percent in 2014.