North & South America Regional Forecast

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Regional Forecasting Table 2016: North & South America (NSA)

  • 26 states, populations over 500,000
  • Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
  • Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
  • Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Notes: Perhaps the most unusual aspect of the Americas is Cuba’s position at t he top of the table, even while states assessed as FREE (liberal democracies) dominate the upper parts of the table (states with mature and intermediate age structures).  Cuba’s Marxist political monopoly is an example of the ability of political monopolies to withstand the forces associated with age-structural maturity that encourage democratization (i.e., demography may seem like destiny, but ideology seems to give it a run for its money).  It’s not clear, however, that the Fidel-Raul Castro regime has created an ideological political mechanism that can readily replicate the Castros’ revolutionary Marxist leadership (as the regimes in China, Vietnam, N. Korea are able to do).