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← Review: Bare Branches (Hudson & DenBoer, 2004), (ECSP, 2005)

Review: Bare Branches (Hudson & DenBoer, 2004), (ECSP, 2005)

http://politicaldemography.org/cincotta_2006_barebranchesrvw/

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← Review: Bare Branches (Hudson & DenBoer, 2004), (ECSP, 2005)

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Key Publications

What Future for the Western Sahel: The Region's Demography and Its Implications, to 2045. R. Cincotta and S. Smith. The Atlantic Council (2021; in English and French).

Forecasting in Age-structural Time. R. Cincotta. In: A Research Agenda for Political Demography, J. Sciubba (ed.), Edward Elgar (2021).

Youthful Age Structures and the Risks of Revolutionary and Separatist Conflicts. R. Cincotta & H. Weber. In: Global Political Demography: The Politics of Population Change. A. Goeress & P. Vanhuysse (eds.). Palgrave MacMillan (2021).

Iran in Transition: The Implications of the Islamic Republic’s Changing Demographics. R. Cincotta & K. Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2017).

The Age-structural Theory of State Behavior. R. Cincotta, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics (2017).

The Ultra-Orthodox and their Impact on Israeli Elections. R. Cincotta, FPRI eNotes (2013).

Demography and Early Warning. R. Cincotta, Journal of Intelligence Analysis (2015).

Who's Next? Age Structure & the Prospects of Democracy in MENA. R. Cincotta, Ashgate (2015).

Africa's Reluctant Fertility Transition. R. Cincotta, Current History (2011).

Half a Chance: the Youth Bulge and Democracy. R. Cincotta, ECSP Report (2008/09).

Age Structure and the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy. R. Cincotta & J. Doces, Palgrave (2012)

Demography: A Development Perspective. R. Cincotta, Georgetown U. (2012).

TOP Web Essays

8 Rules of Political Demography (New Security Beat, 2017)

Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Window (New Security Beat, 2017)

Nicaragua and Latin America's Last Youthful Cluster (New Security Beat, 2018)

Separatist Conflicts Persist, While Revolutions Just "Age Away" (New Security Beat, 2018)

Civil Conflict: More or Less than We Imagined? (New Security Beat, 2017)

Uncomfortable Companions: Fertility Decline and Islamism in Iran (New Security Beat, 2018)

Demography & the Rohingya (New Security Beat, 2016)

Venezuelan Demography and Democracy (New Security Beat, 2018)

Tunisia's Democratic Durability (New Security Beat, 2015)

Demography and the Pace of Development (New Security Beat, 2018)

Bangladesh & Pakistan-Demographic Twins Grow Apart (New Security Beat, 2018)

Featured Forecasts

Record of Political Demography Forecasts (2008 - present), Excel Spreadsheet.

2008 Forecast for Liberal Democracy (North Africa, northwestern corner of South America)

2011 Prediction of Sahelian Conflicts. (spillover from northern Nigerian rebellion)

Regional Forecasting Tables (7 regions) and forecasting guidelines: Middle East & North Africa; North & South America; Pacific Rim; Central & South Asia; East & Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Europe.

Data

Median Age Data: The age (in years) of the person in the population for whom 50.00% of the population is younger. These data are comprised of estimates (1972-2015) and UN medium fertility variant projections (2015-50). Source: UN Population Division, 2017 (GCC states from USCB-IPC); Format: Excel CSV file.

Freedom Scores: Average of political rights (PR) and civil liberties (CL) scores from annual surveys by Freedom House (1972 - present). Source: Freedom House, 2019 (irregular publication of data in early years of survey have been filled in using correlations with Polity IV scores); Format: Excel CSV file.

Probabilities of Liberal Democracy for 7 Regions. These seven charts provide regional views of Freedom House's three Freedom Status categories (Free, Partly Free, Not Free), arranged by median age and "naive probabilities" of liberal democracy (according to a model that does not account for some important "controlling factors"). Source: updated from Cincotta, 2015, using data from UN Population Division and Freedom House; Format: Excel.

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