Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: Middle East & North Africa (MNA)

• 20 states, populations over 500,000
• Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
• Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN); for GCC States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE), median age is for citizen-residents only, the source of which were unpublished age distributions from the US Census Bureau’s International Program Center.
• Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Note: This table shows how the 2008 forecast for the rise of at least one liberal democracy (between 2010 and 2020) among the five coastal North African states was calculated. Tunisia was projected to have the highest probability by 2020; Egypt the lowest. When the five probabilities of not being assessed as FREE (1.0-p) were multiplied together, the probability that one FREE assessment would not emerge was less than 0.03 — thus, a reasonable bet, despite the small number of cases. The forecast was realized in 2015 (Freedom House, 2016).

Several problems with this analysis:

(1) The “small number problem”. The more cases that one can lump together, the better.  With few cases, its best to wager when the probability gets very low (for example, p<0.05)

(2) Libya, a state ruled by a politically monopolistic ideologue, was unlikely to switch non-violently (or with a minimum of violence) to a more liberal regime. Moreover, Libyan demographic data is notoriously uncertain.  The UN has never been able to obtain a regional breakdown of Libyan data. There is a chance that it is not representative of Libyan conditions outside the major cities.

(3) Morocco’s  monarchy is a source of uncertainty. The behavior of absolute monarchies in “age-structural time” is not very well tested.  Data from the Authoritarian Regime Database indicate that these regimes typically do not last past a median age of 35 years. However, this hypothesis has yet to be corroborated by other means.

Regional Forecasting Table 2016: North & South America (NSA)

• 26 states, populations over 500,000
• Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
• Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
• Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Notes: Perhaps the most unusual aspect of the Americas is Cuba’s position at t he top of the table, even while states assessed as FREE (liberal democracies) dominate the upper parts of the table (states with mature and intermediate age structures).  Cuba’s Marxist political monopoly is an example of the ability of political monopolies to withstand the forces associated with age-structural maturity that encourage democratization (i.e., demography may seem like destiny, but ideology seems to give it a run for its money).  It’s not clear, however, that the Fidel-Raul Castro regime has created an ideological political mechanism that can readily replicate the Castros’ revolutionary Marxist leadership (as the regimes in China, Vietnam, N. Korea are able to do).

Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: Europe

• 35 states, populations over 500,000
• Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
• Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
• Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Note: The European Region is dominated by countries in the mature phase of the age-structural transition (median ages ranging from 35.5 to 45.4 years). Column 6 shows the year at which each state’s population is estimated or projected to reach FREE95 — a median age of 45.5 years (the beginning of the post-mature phase of the age-structural transition). By 2025, the region is projected to have 8 states in the post-mature phase.

Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: Central and South Asia

• 18 states, populations over 500,000
• Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
• Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
• Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Note: The Central and South Asia Region is a highly diverse but extremely irregular. The states in the youthful section of the table (which include Afghanistan and Pakistan) behave as political demographers might expect. However, only two states in the region are currently assessed as FREE (liberal democracy)–India, and Mongolia.  While Mongolia has a small population (~3.0 million), and thus not unusual, it is somewhat surprising that a state nestled between China and Russia could politically liberalize without some interference from those non-liberal, often intrusive powers. India has a relatively long, but somewhat erratic post-colonial history with liberal democracy. It has remained at a “borderline” FREE assessment (Freedom Score of 2.5) nearly consistently since Freedom House began its survey in 1972,  but “dropped out” twice (Indira Gandhi’s Emergency, 1976-78; and 1991-97).

Notably, most of the more mature states in this region were once republics within the Soviet Union. All of the former-Soviet states are currently assessed as PARTLY FREE, or NOT FREE. Georgia has made the closest approach to FREE. Its inability to govern two break-away provinces (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) make it difficult for Georgia’s political regime to improve its Freedom Score.

Regional Forecasting Table, 2016: West and Central Africa

• 23 states, populations over 500,000
• Freedom Score & Freedom Status: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2017. (New York, FH).
• Median age: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision. (New York, UN).
• Probability of FREE (model): Cincotta, R. “Demography and Early Warning: Gauging Future Political Transitions in the Age-structural Time Domain,” J. Intelligence Analysis, 22(2): 129-148.

Note: West and Central Africa does not make up a demographically diverse contiguous collection of states.  All are youthful (median age younger than 25.5 years). Cape Verde (Cabo Verde) is the only state among this set that is projected to emerge out of the age-structural transition’s youthful phase by 2025 (it is projected to enter the intermediate phase of the transition in 2018).

Whereas political researchers tend to wonder why there are not more liberal democracies in Equatorial Africa, a glance at this table should make one wonder how Ghana, Benin, and Senegal have maintained their FREE assessment for as long as they have with youthful age structures. Benin’s FREE assessment has been consistent since 1991. Ghana has maintained FREE since 2000. Senegal was first assessed as FREE in 2002, then dropped from this category between 2008 and 2011, and then rose again to FREE status.